Prospect Theory
人在面對獲利的情況下是風險的規避者，在遇到虧損時卻變成風險的喜好者.
當你手上有2檔股票，一檔賺錢，一檔賠錢，在你目前最需要用錢時，你會選擇賣出那檔股票?
大部分的人會選擇，賣出賺錢的股票，而保留賠錢的股票。
2007年3月29日 星期四
2007年3月25日 星期日
Prospects of Gold's Price
2007年3月Bloomberg Market雜誌預測在未來10年內金價會來到$3000 an ounce, 因為在1980年代金價創下$850 an ounce高價時，扣除通貨膨脹率後相當於今日的$2100 an ounce. 27年前1美元價值絕對大於1美元現在的價值，但是1 ounce的黃金在27年後還是27 ounce的黃金. 2007年金價預估會上漲11%來到$678 an ounce, 2008金價將維持平均$725 an ounce.
自1971美國宣布美元不再提供等值黃金對換開始，黃金己不再單純視同貨幣，己有部份變成商品，就像其他礦物金屬一樣，商品受其供需及替代品影響，由人類經濟貨幣發展歷史來看，黃金視同貨幣仍有一定的影響力，要完全將黃金視為商品也不太可能，但說10年內金價要來到$3000 an ounce是有點誇張，除非美元再度開放任由對換黃金。
Bloomberg Market Magazine forecast price of gold will reach $3000 an ounce within a decade. It's because the record high of $850 an ounce in 1980 is equal to $2100 in today after adjust inflation. A dollar is definitely going to be worth in 27 years ago than today. However, A ounce of gold in 27 years ago is still a ounce of gold today. In 2007, price of gold will go up by 11% to average $678 an ounce. the price in 2008 will average $725 an ounce.
Since 1971 U.S. government said it would no longer exchange its currecy for the metal, Gold is no longer equal to currency. It becomes merchandise, just like other mineral. Price is infuenced by demand/supply and substitute. From human economic development point of view, most people still believe gold is similar to currency. It's impossilbe to said gold is goods. It still plays currency role. However, If someone said gold's price will reach $3000 an ounce within a decade, I think it is exaggerated unless government allow exchange its currecy for the gold again.
自1971美國宣布美元不再提供等值黃金對換開始，黃金己不再單純視同貨幣，己有部份變成商品，就像其他礦物金屬一樣，商品受其供需及替代品影響，由人類經濟貨幣發展歷史來看，黃金視同貨幣仍有一定的影響力，要完全將黃金視為商品也不太可能，但說10年內金價要來到$3000 an ounce是有點誇張，除非美元再度開放任由對換黃金。
Bloomberg Market Magazine forecast price of gold will reach $3000 an ounce within a decade. It's because the record high of $850 an ounce in 1980 is equal to $2100 in today after adjust inflation. A dollar is definitely going to be worth in 27 years ago than today. However, A ounce of gold in 27 years ago is still a ounce of gold today. In 2007, price of gold will go up by 11% to average $678 an ounce. the price in 2008 will average $725 an ounce.
Since 1971 U.S. government said it would no longer exchange its currecy for the metal, Gold is no longer equal to currency. It becomes merchandise, just like other mineral. Price is infuenced by demand/supply and substitute. From human economic development point of view, most people still believe gold is similar to currency. It's impossilbe to said gold is goods. It still plays currency role. However, If someone said gold's price will reach $3000 an ounce within a decade, I think it is exaggerated unless government allow exchange its currecy for the gold again.
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